Bitcoin Will Outperform As Global Liquidity Expands, TradFi Evolves, Says Arthur Hayes

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes says the structural fragility of the U.S. financial system, especially in the face of geopolitical and trade uncertainty, is setting the stage for Bitcoin BTC/USD to outperform in the coming macro cycle.

What Happened: In an April 23 appearance on the Forward Guidance podcast, Hayes pointed to President Trump's quick reversal on tariffs as a sign that the U.S. cannot tolerate market volatility without resorting to money printing.

Markets sold off sharply and bond yields spiked above 5% before the administration backtracked — a signal, Hayes says, that more liquidity is coming.

Hayes, now managing the Maelstrom family office, said Trump has been consistent in his goal of correcting America's trade imbalance, but the political execution remains complex.

He explained that there's a segment of America that feels globalization gave them the short end of the stick.

Trump wants to fix the current account deficit and bring jobs back onshore, but Hayes added that that's easier said than done."

The World Still Needs China

Hayes emphasized that China won't make concessions easily, citing its historical trauma from the “century of humiliation.”

When Trump demands China bend the knee, it's politically impossible for Xi to comply, he noted. Xi can't afford to look weak, not domestically, not historically.

Despite rising tensions, global trade will persist, Hayes believes just at higher costs.

American consumers will still get Chinese goods they'll just pay more for them.

Also Read: Bitcoin’s Dual Role Could Propel It To $200,000: Standard Chartered

Why It Matters: For Bitcoin holders, Hayes sees this environment as structurally bullish.

He argues that if Trump genuinely pursues trade deficit reduction, it will mathematically require foreigners to sell U.S. equities, cutting into capital gains taxes and forcing the government to print more money to plug fiscal holes.

Hayes also flagged Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant's recent comments on market support tools, including Treasury buybacks, as a key sign of ongoing stealth liquidity injections.

"This is stealth quantitative easing," Hayes said. "It doesn't require the Fed or Congress, and it keeps liquidity flowing."

With global central banks diversifying away from U.S. Treasuries and into gold, Hayes believes Bitcoin is poised to benefit from the broader shift in traditional finance.

While he doesn't expect central banks to adopt BTC as a reserve asset just yet, he sees the macro tailwinds stacking in its favour.

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