VanEck and 21Shares file for Solana ETFs—a ‘bet’ on a Trump victory

Niamh Rowe

The Chicago Board Options Exchange on Monday filed paperwork asking the Securities and Exchange Commission to list two new crypto offerings: the <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2028541/000162828024030249/vanecksolanatrusts-1.htm">VanEck Solana Trust</a> and the <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2028834/000121390024057001/ea0208625-s1_21shares.htm">21Shares Core Solana ETF</a>. The move is an attempt to offer a third cryptocurrency—Solana—in the form of an ETF, following the SEC&#8217;s approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January, and ahead of <a href="https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/06/26/ethereum-etf-launch-approval-sec-gary-gensler-bitcoin-markets/">Ethereum ETFs</a>, which are expected to debut in coming weeks.<div class="paywall-selector"></div><div class="paywall">



“We are now addressing the increasing investor interest in Solana—the third most actively traded cryptocurrency after Bitcoin and Ether,&#8221; Rob Marrocco, global head of ETP listings at <a href="https://fortune.com/company/cboe-global-markets/" target="_blank">Cboe Global Markets</a>, said in a statement.



The listings will depend on the regulator&#8217;s approval of the issuers&#8217; respective S-1 filings—the forms public companies are required to submit when launching a new security—both filed at the end of June.



Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, has <a href="https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1810416604389539880">predicted</a> that trading may begin July 18. So, with hedge funds managers, brokerages and financial advisors just days away from gaining access to a second cryptocurrencies via ETFs, issuers are wasting no time in looking ahead to what may be next.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">Looks like Solana ETFs are going to have a final deadline of mid-March 2025. But between now and then the most imp date is in November. If Biden wins, these likely DOA. If Trump wins, anything poss. <a href="https://t.co/ywkf6oA8Rc">https://t.co/ywkf6oA8Rc</a>&mdash; Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1810425019853324721?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 8, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>



But getting Solana ETFs over the line will be an entirely new type of battle, sources told Fortune.



“As is, the [Solana application] is very unlikely to get approved,&#8221; a source close to the matter told Fortune who requested anonymity due to company policy. That’s because the current SEC administration has set a de facto precedent of requiring a regulated futures market for the underlying asset—and a correlation between that and the spot market—for an ETF approval. While Bitcoin and Ether have such markets—the <a href="https://fortune.com/company/cme-group/" target="_blank">CME Group</a> launched Bitcoin futures in 2017, and for Ether in 2021— Solana and subsequent cryptocurrencies do not.&nbsp;



So, why spend millions of dollars in legal fees to launch ETF applications, with low approval odds? In short: the election.



Once the SEC confirms receipt of the CBOE application—which typically occurs within 15 days of filing—it has 240 days to make a decision, meaning the regulator has a deadline of mid-March. Based on historical behavior, the regulator is likely to leave a ruling to the final hour. So, that means if President Joe Biden loses the presidential election in November—an outcome that is currently most likely, according to <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/">polls</a>—the decision will be in the hands of Donald Trump&#8217;s administration. Trump has been increasingly bullish on crypto over recent months, touting himself as the &#8220;crypto president,&#8221; Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-pitches-himself-crypto-president-san-francisco-tech-fundraiser-2024-06-07/">reported</a>.



This is &#8220;largely a bet” on Trump winning the election, James Seyffart, Bloomberg’s ETF research analyst, told Fortune. Echoing this sentiment: While mid-March may be the SEC’s official deadline, “between now and then the most important date is in November. If Biden wins, these are likely DOA [dead on arrival]. If Trump wins, anything is possible,” Bloomberg’s Balchunas posted on <a href="https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1810425019853324721">X</a>.&nbsp;



But regardless of the election outcome, Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, told Fortune he’s optimistic about an approval. That’s because the SEC’s hostility towards proof-of-stake coins has been “whittled away” by its approval of the Ether ETFs, he says.



But if Biden is re-elected, issuers will likely face the daunting task of challenging the SEC’s prerequisite of a futures market to show correlation. In lieu of this, VanEck is reportedly constructing a legal case for why this burden need not be required. “We&#8217;re working on that now—it’s being formulated and brainstormed,” the unnamed sourced said. Thus, if Biden wins, it&#8217;s not &#8220;dead in the water,&#8221; which is one of the reasons why VanEck decided to file, they said.&nbsp;



 In addition, regardless of a Republican administration, Sigel believes there is a changing atmosphere on Capitol Hill in favor of crypto, giving VanEck “further confidence” of the chances of a Solana approval. 



“I doubt that Elizabeth Warren&#8217;s control over the financial services sector will endure into 2025. I predict her “anti-crypto Army” will be routed, and a Solana ETF will trade,” says Sigel.</div>

The SEC has until March to decide on Solana ETFs. The real deadline, however, will be November's election.

VanEck and 21Shares file for Solana ETFs—a 'bet' on a Trump victory

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VanEck and 21Shares file for Solana ETFs—a 'bet' on a Trump victory | Fortune Crypto

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