Toncoin whales buy, but holders remain red – What next?

• Whale accumulation grows while 71.28% of holders remain at a loss.
• Derivatives surge as liquidation zones form near $3.50 resistance.

Since 2021, Toncoin’s [TON] top 100 whale addresses have consistently grown their balances, revealing a strong conviction in the asset’s long-term value. 

This pattern of sustained accumulation suggests that influential stakeholders are confident in future price appreciation. This rise in whale balances could serve as an early indicator of renewed upside potential. 

As a result, tracking these wallets becomes critical to understanding future shifts in liquidity, volatility, and overall market sentiment on the TON network.

What will shape TON’s next major move?

According to IntoTheBlock data, 71.28% of addresses holding TON were “in the money” at press time, suggesting broad market profitability. 

Meanwhile, only 11.52% remained underwater, significantly limiting immediate sell-side pressure.

Interestingly, a large chunk of holders accumulated TON below the $3.05 mark, which now acts as a strong support zone. 

However, resistance may build as price approaches higher clusters between $5 and $6, where many holders could exit to recover losses. 

Source: IntoTheBlock

TON’s transaction data reveals expanding participation across both retail and institutional investors.  Notably, transactions between $1M and $10M surged nearly 80%, while those above $10M rose by 50%. 

Additionally, mid-tier ranges like $10K to $100K also saw significant growth, pointing to increasing diversity in user engagement. 

 TON’s next breakout depends on…

TON’s derivatives market has seen a 14.95% jump in volume, now totaling $174.86M, alongside a 4.28% rise in Open Interest to $230.72M. 

These increases point to renewed speculative interest, likely triggered by recent price structure tightening and whale accumulation. 

Additionally, increased leverage exposure often amplifies volatility, meaning future price swings could be sharper. 

The Binance liquidation heatmap shows significant short liquidation clusters around $3.31 and $3.50. If TON’s price continues climbing, these zones could trigger a short squeeze, adding buying pressure. 

Meanwhile, long liquidations remain minimal below $3.10, providing a relatively safe zone for bulls. 

Therefore, if TON pushes above $3.31 and targets $3.50, cascading liquidations could accelerate its upward momentum. 

Source: Coinglass

Is TON preparing for a breakout from its symmetrical triangle pattern?

TON’s price action has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, squeezing between the $3.505 resistance and $3.097 support. 

Historically, such patterns precede sharp breakouts, especially when paired with rising whale activity and increased derivatives volume. 

Therefore, if TON breaks above $3.505 with strong volume, it could target the $4.72 region. Conversely, a drop below $3.097 may drag price toward $2.28. 

Thus, TON is at a critical juncture where its next move could define near-term market structure and sentiment.

Source: TradingView

Ultimately, despite most holders being at a loss, sustained whale accumulation and rising speculative interest favor a breakout over a selloff. 

If bulls maintain momentum and flip $3.50 into support, TON could rally sharply. However, failure at this resistance might invite short-term pullbacks. 

Therefore, current metrics suggest whales are preparing for upside, not distribution—hinting at bullish continuation rather than capitulation.