Mapping Bitcoin’s next move: A bullish breakout or a bearish trap ahead?

• It was unclear if this bounce could transform into an uptrend for Bitcoin.
• The announcement of the U.S. crypto strategic reserve on Sunday lifted the market-wide sentiment slightly.

Bitcoin [BTC] surged 9.53% on Sunday the 2nd of March following the announcement of a new strategic crypto reserve proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

This proposal also includes Ethereum [ETH], Ripple[XRP], Solana [SOL], and Cardano [ADA], all of which saw sizable gains.

From a technical perspective, the BTC bounce has not changed the outlook on the daily timeframe. Was this a bearish retest, or the beginning of a recovery that would usher in a new uptrend?

Bitcoin faces resistance till $100k- should you go short?

Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView

The U.S. jobs report is set for the 7th of March. If the report falls short of broader market expectations, it could impact stocks and crypto, including Bitcoin. Additionally, the rally occurred when the price broke the range lows and established a bearish structure.

Was this a deep deviation before moving higher to collect liquidity to the south? Or could this be a “sell the news” event? It is tough to be sure. Then again, trading has never been about certainty.

The CMF was at +0.15, signaling heavy buying pressure, but the Awesome Oscillator remained in bearish territory.

More importantly, the daily market structure was also bearish. The lower high at $98.3 needed to be breached to shift the structure.

Source: Coinglass

The 1-month liquidation heatmap highlighted the cluster of liquidity around $100k. This indicated that a move to this region was highly likely, as price is drawn to dense liquidation zones.

Source: Coinglass

The 1-week chart highlighted the $95.5k level as the closest price target. This level coincided with the support level that Bitcoin clung to throughout February. A retest of this level could trigger a bearish reversal.

There did not appear to be a more likely outcome at press time. The sentiment has been intensely bearish in recent days, and traders would be apprehensive of being bullish.

Yet, BTC is unpredictable, and this kind of scenario is when the price rockets higher, leaving many participants sidelined.

Hence, the bullish scenario seemed more probable based on a qualitative assessment, while technical analysis supported the bearish case.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion